Photo by Florian Wehde on Unsplash
Following a 94% turnout during Thailand’s elections, Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, secured the highest number of votes, outperforming its fellow democratic party, Pheu Thai, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Now, following Move Forward’s impressive showing in the elections, the question is, what is in store for Thailand in the future? One thing to note in Thailand is, Pita’s victory does not mean he will be Thailand’s next prime minister. The conservative senate, military and courts stand in his way. Hence, this article seeks to discuss both external and internal challenges for the formation of a democratic government led by Move Forward.
First, Pita’s rise to prime minister will be a challenging one due to external challenges from the senate. To become Prime Minister, he has to garner votes from more than half of the 750-seat National Assembly (The National Assembly consists of the house of representatives and the senate). While Mr Pita has secured 313 votes together with his eight party coalition in the house of representatives, he still needs 63 votes from the senate to secure a simple majority within the national assembly. For context, the senate comprises 250 members carefully picked by generals who couped Thailand in 2014, and as such, are assumed to be largely pro-military and conservative. While we try to avoid making assumptions of individuals within the senate, most of the senate’s reactions to Pita’s rise instead have simply reinforced these assumptions. Many senators have come out to show their disapproval for Pita’s rise and indicated their desire to vote against him. This is mainly due to Pita and the Move Forward Party’s desire to reform the royal system and the monarchy.
Second, apart from the senate, other external challenges lie for Mr Pita. Another such challenge is the election commission, a body that has the power to disqualify or ban candidates. Mr Pita recently had a legal complaint filed against him, as he allegedly owned shares in a now defunct media broadcaster, and such ownership of shares could lead to him being banned. Again, for context, the previous incarnation of the Move Forward Party, the Future Forward Party was dissolved and core leaders banned from elections due to an alleged acceptance of a donation from an illegitimate source, following a successful showing in the elections. As such, this could be another challenge for Pita Limjaroenrat.
Third, internal disputes could also make it difficult for Pita to form a new government. Recently, there was some conflict regarding the post of house speaker in parliament, as Move Forward believes it should take up that post. However, some members of Pheu Thai disagree and some have expressed the possibility of Pheu Thai exiting the coalition. Yet, key members of both parties have brushed off speculation of such a rift, and Pheu Thai has insisted that it will support Move Forward and Pita’s appointment as Prime Minister, so this might mean that there is barely any conflict between the two parties. Nonetheless, this has shown that while both parties have worked well in the coalition, there is possibility for rifts and disagreements to occur in the future that might complicate Pita’s rise as Prime Minister.
As such, while Thailand eagerly awaits until July for a leader, there will be both external and internal challenges ahead that Pita Limjaroenrat will have to face before he can take over the reins in Thailand. The senate, the election commission, and even parties within the coalition might complicate his long-awaited rise to Prime Minister.
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