On Monday, 18 September, Justin Trudeau, Canada’s Prime Minister raised strong allegations of Indian government agents being involved in the murder of Sikh Separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. For context, India had already demanded Canada to take action against Sikh independence movements over the years and it has played a role in straining their relations in the past few years. After hearing these allegations, New Delhi was not pleased, while the rest of the world silently watched, thinking about their next steps. These allegations have led to retaliatory steps taken by both sides, on the economic and social front, leading to diplomatic ties between the two countries reaching a historic low. However, there is not much comment from the rest of the world, who is afraid of offending either side. This essay seeks to discuss the implications of the India-Canada Row.
First, the retaliatory policies implemented by both countries have severe social impacts on citizens both in Canada and India. For Canadians, India’s decision to suspend visa processing for them is a big decision, affecting many Canadian tourists planning to visit India. India claimed that it was done to ensure its staff’s safety. However, according to India’s travelling data, Canada is one of the top five countries who travel the most to India, with more than 80,000 of them visiting India in 2022. For Indians, the problem lies in education. Many Indian students have plans to study in Canada, with around 40% of international students in Canada hailing from India. Moreover, many Indians have immigrated to Canada over the years, leading to Canada having a large Indo-Canadian population. As such, delays or suspensions in Visa processing can be fatal. Now, in terms of their respective embassies, both countries have also took measures to expel diplomats in retaliation. On Tuesday, Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat in light of this issue, as they felt that India’s involvement, if proven true, is a serious violation of its sovereignty. Then on Wednesday, one of Canada’s top diplomats was expelled by India, with India claiming that there was growing concern over Canadian diplomats interfering in India’s domestic issues and anti-India matters. Clearly, both in the area of education, tourism and foreign service, many Canadians and Indians have been affected by the dispute between India and Canada.
Second, there are serious economic impacts stemming from this rift. Trade talks between both countries might stall and could be affected by the conflict. As of now, negotiations for a free trade agreement between the two countries have paused. Moreover, a scheduled trade mission to India was delayed, further fueling the narrative that economic ties between India and Canada will take a hit. However, there have been strong economic ties between both countries. This is seen with Indian exports to Canada being around $4 billion, and imports from Canada reaching $4 billion. In addition to that, Canada has been exporting key products like coal, coke to India while India has been exporting many consumer goods and electronic items to Canada, highlighting the drastic impact should there be a complete stop to trade between both countries. However, there is also hope that economic ties may not be severed as the economic ties are driven by commercial considerations. Furthermore, it is worth noting that despite India’s conflict with China, trade between the two countries continues to be prosperous, with political turmoil having limited effects on it. Hence, the impact on the economy of both countries might be mixed, and it may or may not be severely affected, as both countries might continue their deep economic ties despite the conflict.
Third, the Indian-Canadian rift will implicate many other countries in the world. For one, both Canada and India are looking for allies to back them up in this case. For Canada, they have turned to the Five Eyes Intelligence sharing alliance, which includes the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Australia and New Zealand. However, global powers like the US, and the United Kingdom UK are left in an awkward position. On one hand, they might want to back a fellow democratic country. Yet, on the other end, India is a country that both the US and the UK see as an important power to counter China. This was seen in the G20 Summit, with India claiming to be the leader of the global south and setting up its own version of the Belt and Road Initiative to connect with middle eastern countries. Now, Canada, in a sense, are not a significant power as compared to India in the grand calculations for these major powers. As such, response from the US and UK have been muted, with both countries barely coming out to openly comment and criticise India. The only significant comment is probably just from US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, who mentioned that he is closely monitoring the situation and hopes for India to cooperate with the investigation. However, until definitive evidence is surfaced, responses from major powers are expected to be muted. Though, when more concrete evidence surfaces, it is certainly reasonable to expect the major powers in the Five Eyes alliance to speak up and give their thoughts on the situation.
In conclusion, the India-Canada diplomatic row is expected to bring damaging impacts, especially on the social front in education and tourism. In terms of its economic impact, we would have to continue to observe how the situation unfolds, as economic ties between the two might continue as per normal. However, international response to the issue has been weak, with major powers like the US trying to continue to maintain good relations with India, a country they feel could counterbalance China. Unfortunately, international response will remain weak until Canada releases definitive evidence that points towards India being involved in the murder.
References
https://apnews.com/article/india-canada-visas-sikh-activist-killing-381e973e84f8d0c10b0bd53b03ccbdf2
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