Photo taken from, Kaung Myat Min on Unsplash
On 5th September, the second ASEAN summit of the year was held, and chaired by Indonesia. During the summit, Indonesia’s foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, noted that it was important that ASEAN shows its relevance and proves its capabilities to the world through the summit. Many challenges that have plagued ASEAN were discussed during the summit. These matters include the bloc’s relationship with the United States (US) and China and the Military Junta in Myanmar. Unfortunately for ASEAN, such matters have bothered them for a very long period of time. During the summit however, there were new developments, both positive and negative, that will be discussed in this essay.
First, in terms of its relationship with the US and China, ASEAN, as mentioned by President Joko Widodo, looks to avoid being a proxy to any major power. There were key discussions made between both the US and ASEAN and China and ASEAN. First, during the China-ASEAN summit, both entities focused on deepening economic ties as they hope to push for regional economic growth, and China hopes to possibly downplay political and other controversial issues like the South China Sea dispute. Some manifestations of economic cooperation include collaborations in developing a digital, green economy and measures to boost agricultural growth. Agricultural growth was a key area for cooperation to boost food security in the region. However, China hopes for ASEAN to avoid complicating relationships by gaining “petty profits” from external forces like the US. One such example is in the South China Sea, a dispute that continues to haunt and divide ASEAN, as Indonesia’s efforts to push for a code of conduct continues to be halted by countries affected by the dispute. One such country is the Philippines. Recently, they had made controversial moves against China with the Philippines nearly banning the hit film, Barbie, due to the nine-dash line, a rejected border of a South China Sea promoted by China being depicted in the film. In addition, they have had extensive military cooperation with the US, through the opening of military bases and having joint sails with the US. Hence, while ASEAN tries to further its economic relations with China, political and sovereignty issues continue to divide and complicate their relationship.
Now, for ASEAN’s relationship with the US, the start of the summit was already challenged with the absence of US President Joe Biden. While China has usually been represented by Premier Li instead of President Xi, the US has instead been regularly represented by its President. Hence, when President Biden was absent, it was rather significant and it did give off a sense that the US lacked interest to engage with the bloc. Moreover, it signified that Biden did not mean what he said when he mentioned he wanted the US to have a closer relationship with Asia. Nonetheless, the US was still represented by a high ranking official in Vice President Kamala Harris. During the discussions, positive developments were seen with the US’ commitment to pushing back against Myanmar’s military junta and supporting Timor Leste in its efforts to gain full membership in ASEAN. Economically, much like ASEAN’s ties with China, the US did talk about deepening economic ties. The US hopes to do so by enhancing people to people connectivity and human capital developments through more internship opportunities for students from both ASEAN and the US that will allow them to collaborate in many research fields. However, the US does have other priorities in its relationship with ASEAN, one such priority was regional stability in the indo-pacific, a priority that would complicate ASEAN’s relationship with China. The US’ claims of freedom of navigation in the region and its alliance with the Philippines are prime examples of occurrences that serve to drag ASEAN into the US-China conflict. As such, it is evident there will be no quick solution for ASEAN to steer clear of their conflict as the South China Sea dispute drags on.
Now, we can expect deeper economic ties between ASEAN’s relationship with both the US and China. However, we see that there is no easy solution for ASEAN to avoid being dragged into the rivalry of major powers, because each country within the bloc has differing priorities and relationships with the US and China. Hence, it is evident that ASEAN’s relationship with both powers remain very complicated despite efforts to avoid its entanglement into major power rivalries. Nonetheless, ASEAN has to continue to fight for peaceful resolution to conflicts, much like how it has worked as a “safe house” in the past for major powers to resolve conflicts through dialogues.
Next, on the topic of the Myanmar Military junta, ASEAN has looked to set a stiff stance to maintain its credibility as a bloc. Though it has been close to 2 years since the military took over power, the military junta situation in Myanmar has hardly improved, with violence still rampant and freedoms compromised. ASEAN’s five-point consensus plan has also been completely ignored despite repeated reminders. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong pushed for ASEAN to send a message to the rest of the world that Myanmar cannot be represented by junta leaders in ASEAN’s meetings. This is so as ASEAN’s credibility as a bloc would be drastically undermined in a time where the world is increasingly polarised and ASEAN needs to have great relationships with strategic partners. Hence, ASEAN as a whole has decided to pass Myanmar’s turn to take on the ASEAN Chairmanship in 2026. Previously, there were talks of the chairmanship being put off till 2027, but now Myanmar would have to wait for the next 10 years to take up the role of ASEAN’s chairman. It is worth noting that Myanmar also did not take up its turn to be ASEAN’s chairman in 2006, but they were able to protect their pride as they were asked to “give up” the chairmanship. This time instead, it was the 9 other member states of ASEAN who made the final decision to skip Myanmar’s turn to become ASEAN’s chairman. As such, it is obvious that ASEAN has improved in setting a strict stance against Myanmar’s military junta through this summit. In addition to that, ASEAN is looking to establish a troika mechanism, a group that currently comprises the 2023 chair, Indonesia, the 2024 chair Laos and the 2025 chair, Malaysia. It is expected to be a rotating group of previous, current and future chairs and it hopes to serve as an informal consultation mechanism to help resolve crises, with one currently being the situation in Myanmar. Such a group is expected to be an anchor for resolving issues, and ensure unity and continuity in resolving issues, by involving the previous, current and future chairs. As such, while ASEAN certainly cannot stop the conflict in Myanmar, it has been taking decisive moves to further alienate the junta and limit its international presence.
In conclusion, the ASEAN summit did result in several interesting developments for the region. On the issue of major power rivalry, we see that ASEAN’s relationship continues to blossom economically with both US and China but yet, politically, ASEAN cannot keep clear of the US-China conflict as differences between countries in the bloc loom. As for the junta in Myanmar, ASEAN has certainly taken decisive steps to hinder the international presence of the junta, which is a good step in managing the conflict. The hope for ASEAN is to continue to build on this progress and remain united towards the challenges ahead to maintain its credibility and relevance.
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