Photo by Ah Het, taken from Unsplash.
Recently, Australia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US) signed a deal which meant that nuclear-powered submarines would be produced for Australia, developed by the US. Also, Australia is expected to get cutting edge technology for its new fleet, using UK Rolls Royce reactors and long range missiles. This deal is expected to impact Australia-China relations, and Australia-Southeast Asian (SEA) relations. This article seeks to discuss the impacts of the submarine deal.
First, the deal will have detrimental effects on Australia-China’s relations. China has always been Australia’s largest trading partner, but such a deal could jeopardize their relations. Clearly, such a move signals Australia’s desire to strengthen military ties with the US and check China's rising threat in the Indo-Pacific.China has claimed that it is a move “further down the path of error and danger” as it goes against the UN’s mission for non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Moreover, China believes it is a policy by the US and its allies to contain its rise. However, Australia instead is looking to mend relations with China, with a scheduled visit to China occurring soon. Simultaneously, Australia’s deputy Prime Minister, Richard Marles claimed that he hopes for Australia to stabilize Australia-China relations. More importantly, despite the alliance, Australia vowed to not support the US in a conflict over Taiwan. Hence, while the deal might be a blow to Australian-Chinese relations, there is still hope for improved ties despite the deal.
Second, SEA countries' relations with Australia will be impacted by this deal. On one end, SEA countries like the Philippines are expected to welcome such a deal, as they believe this deal could help with ensuring regional stability. However, other countries like Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand beg to differ. These countries are anxious over the possibility of nuclear proliferation in the region, with them being fearful of an arms race and a rise in weapons of mass destruction. Hence, there will be cracks in Australia-Southeast Asian relations. However, Australia’s chief of navy, Mark Hammond is expected to embark on a tour over SEA, to discuss this issue and smoothen relations with SEA countries.
In conclusion, the AUKUS submarine deal has certainly alarmed many countries within the region, but Australia’s efforts to tame these concerns might be able to ease relations with these countries.
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